Mortgages Are About Math: Open-Source Loan-Level Analysis of Fannie and Freddie

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Fannie Mae has lowered its forecast for home sales in the first half of 2019, while freddie mac expects modest growth in 2019 due to lower mortgage rates. In its March Outlook, the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group wrote that it expects the market to rebound in the second half of the year.

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> It should not be overlooked that in the not-so-distant past, i.e. when I worked as a mortgage analyst, an analysis of loan-level mortgage data would have cost a lot of money. Between licensing data and paying for expensive computers to analyze it, you could have easily incurred costs north of a million dollars per year. If it existed. It did not.

Today, in addition to Fannie and Freddie making their data freely available, we’re in the midst of what I might call the "medium data" revolution: personal computers are so powerful that my MacBook Air is capable of analyzing the entire 215 GB of data, representing some 38 million loans, 1.6 billion observations, and over $7.1 trillion of origination volume.

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Data on activities by the Department of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve System to support mortgage markets through purchases of securities issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks and by Ginnie Mae, a federal agency that guarantees securities backed by mortgages insured or guaranteed by the Federal Housing.

There are plenty of other types of loans, including 15-year terms and loans with adjustable interest rates. 30-year fixed-rate loans continue to be the standard of the U.S. mortgage market, but it would still be good to release data for all of Fannie and Freddie’s loans.

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This week on the JOURNAL, Bill Moyers spoke with liberal academics Melissa Harris-Lacewell and Eric Alterman about why Democrats lost Ted Kennedy’s former seat in Massachusetts’ special election for.

Mortgages Are About Math: Open-Source Loan-Level Analysis of Fannie and Freddie [M]ortgages were acknowledged to be the most mathematically complex securities in the marketplace.

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